Key metrics show Bitcoin’s rally isn’t over
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Key metrics show Bitcoin’s rally isn’t over

Jun 13, 2025
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By Matt Mena

Bitcoin is trading above $100K, sustaining its strong momentum. Several key metrics suggest that this is still early in the cycle and there’s a window of opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure before retail euphoria sets in.

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is up more than 60% from last year and 15% so far this year, leaving the S&P 500’s 2% gain in the dust. 21Shares projected that Bitcoin could hit $138,500 by year-end, making it all the more compelling to watch how the current momentum unfolds.

Here are three indicators that tell why the surge is just getting started.

1. Bitcoin has more room to run

One key metric in the crypto market is the MVRV Z-Score, which helps assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market value to its realized value. A high MVRV Z-Score means the current price is much higher than what most people paid, which can signal a hype or market peak. 

Historically, an MVRV Z-Score above 7 has signaled market tops, reaching 11 in 2017 and over 7 in 2021. As of June 11, 2025, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.5, which is considered neutral. 

For context, during the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin consistently stayed above the 2.5 level for most of the year. Following its initial major peak, it not only held that threshold but surged past 7 during an extended rally.

While Bitcoin is currently hovering near its peak, the relatively low MVRV Z-Score points to more room for growth and a strong rally ahead.

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2. Fear & Greed Index is still far from extreme greed

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, was at 62 as of June 11, 2025, hovering near neutral territory. Historically, during bull market peaks, the index tends to surge above 80 and stay elevated for extended periods. 

Bitcoin is currently trading just 3–5% below its all-time high, yet the lack of extreme greed suggests that there could still be considerable upside in the near term, especially if a sentiment-driven rally begins to take shape.

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3. Google Trends shows retail interest in the early stage‍

Google Trends isn’t an on-chain metric, which means it doesn’t track blockchain transactions or activity directly. But it does provide valuable insights into retail interest in crypto. It measures search volume on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 represents peak popularity and 0 indicates minimal interest.

During the 2021 bull run, search interest for “Bitcoin” in the US hit 100 in February, aligning with peak retail enthusiasm. As of June 2025, that number stands at just 29, which suggests that retail excitement is still in its early stages. There may be plenty of room for growth in the months ahead as broader participation builds toward the kind of euphoria typically seen at market tops.

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This report has been prepared and issued by 21Shares AG for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Crypto asset trading involves a high degree of risk. The crypto asset market is new to many and unproven and may have the potential not to grow as expected.Currently, there is relatively small use of crypto assets in the retail and commercial marketplace in comparison to relatively large use by speculators, thus contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect an investment in crypto assets. In order to participate in the trading of crypto assets, you should be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the investment and be able to bear the economic risk of losing your entire investment.Nothing herein does or should be considered as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or invest in crypto assets or derivatives. This report is provided for information and research purposes only and should not be construed or presented as an offer or solicitation for any investment. The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or any offering and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or solicit an offer to invest in any jurisdiction. The crypto assets or derivatives and/or any services contained or referred to herein may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent advisor. Nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Neither 21Shares AG nor any of its affiliates accept liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented or discussed herein.Readers are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.This report may contain or refer to material that is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject 21Shares AG or any of its affiliates to any registration, affiliation, approval or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

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