Bitcoin is trading above $100K, sustaining its strong momentum. Several key metrics suggest that this is still early in the cycle and there’s a window of opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure before retail euphoria sets in.
The world’s leading cryptocurrency is up more than 60% from last year and 15% so far this year, leaving the S&P 500’s 2% gain in the dust. 21Shares projected that Bitcoin could hit $138,500 by year-end, making it all the more compelling to watch how the current momentum unfolds.
Here are three indicators that tell why the surge is just getting started.
1. Bitcoin has more room to run
One key metric in the crypto market is the MVRV Z-Score, which helps assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market value to its realized value. A high MVRV Z-Score means the current price is much higher than what most people paid, which can signal a hype or market peak.
Historically, an MVRV Z-Score above 7 has signaled market tops, reaching 11 in 2017 and over 7 in 2021. As of June 11, 2025, the MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.5, which is considered neutral.
For context, during the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin consistently stayed above the 2.5 level for most of the year. Following its initial major peak, it not only held that threshold but surged past 7 during an extended rally.
While Bitcoin is currently hovering near its peak, the relatively low MVRV Z-Score points to more room for growth and a strong rally ahead.
2. Fear & Greed Index is still far from extreme greed
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, was at 62 as of June 11, 2025, hovering near neutral territory. Historically, during bull market peaks, the index tends to surge above 80 and stay elevated for extended periods.
Bitcoin is currently trading just 3–5% below its all-time high, yet the lack of extreme greed suggests that there could still be considerable upside in the near term, especially if a sentiment-driven rally begins to take shape.
3. Google Trends shows retail interest in the early stage
Google Trends isn’t an on-chain metric, which means it doesn’t track blockchain transactions or activity directly. But it does provide valuable insights into retail interest in crypto. It measures search volume on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 represents peak popularity and 0 indicates minimal interest.
During the 2021 bull run, search interest for “Bitcoin” in the US hit 100 in February, aligning with peak retail enthusiasm. As of June 2025, that number stands at just 29, which suggests that retail excitement is still in its early stages. There may be plenty of room for growth in the months ahead as broader participation builds toward the kind of euphoria typically seen at market tops.
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