Bitcoin’s strength beneath the surface

Mar 25, 2025

Over the last decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a niche movement led by some computer scientists into a national reserve asset peaking at $2 trillion in market capitalization.

‍

But what drives its resilience and distinguishes the temporary stumbles from true fundamental risks? To answer that, we explore how Bitcoin investors behave in different stress environments.

The setup for the rest of the year remains bullish

On-chain data, such as the long/short-term holder supply ratio, suggest this is a consolidation phase, not a final peak.

Over the past year, a surge of short-term holders, fueled by crypto’s growing mainstream adoption, flooded the market. However, the bottom-out suggests that these hands have been recently shaken out, potentially setting the stage for long-term holders to regain dominance.

Historically, they have played a critical role in fueling the next leg of sustained uptrends. If they begin accumulating at scale once again, it could serve as a powerful platform for recovery, especially if paired with more favorable macro conditions.

Liquidity is rising again, with global money supply ticking upward and leading indicators pointing toward a potential boost in demand. Meanwhile, crypto-native tailwinds—including institutional ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and integration with traditional finance—add even more momentum.

While a further downside cannot be ruled out—particularly if Bitcoin retests the 200-day moving average near $77,000—the broader picture remains constructive. Assuming no immediate black swan or unpredictable event occurs, we maintain our recently revised target of $138,555 by year-end, representing a 59% upside from the current price of around $87,000.

This report has been prepared and issued by 21Shares AG for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Crypto asset trading involves a high degree of risk. The crypto asset market is new to many and unproven and may have the potential not to grow as expected.

Currently, there is relatively small use of crypto assets in the retail and commercial marketplace in comparison to relatively large use by speculators, thus contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect an investment in crypto assets. In order to participate in the trading of crypto assets, you should be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the investment and be able to bear the economic risk of losing your entire investment.

Nothing herein does or should be considered as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or invest in crypto assets or derivatives. This report is provided for information and research purposes only and should not be construed or presented as an offer or solicitation for any investment. The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or any offering and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or solicit an offer to invest in any jurisdiction. The crypto assets or derivatives and/or any services contained or referred to herein may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent advisor. Nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Neither 21Shares AG nor any of its affiliates accept liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented or discussed herein.

Readers are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.

This report may contain or refer to material that is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject 21Shares AG or any of its affiliates to any registration, affiliation, approval or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

‍

Le matériel figurant sur ce site Web n’est émis qu’à des fins d’information et 21Shares AG, ainsi que ses sociétés affiliées, ne sollicitent aucun acte fondé sur ce matériel. Le matériel ne doit pas être interprété ni comme une offre ou une recommandation d’acheter ou de vendre un titre, ni comme un conseil en investissement. En outre, le matériel accessible par le biais de ce site web ne constitue pas une déclaration selon laquelle les investissements décrits ici sont adaptés ou appropriés pour toute personne. Les performances passées ne sont pas une indication des performances futures. Pour l’intégralité des conditions générales et la politique de confidentialité, veuillez consulter la version en anglais. En cas de divergence, la version en anglais prévaut. Produit présentant un risque de perte en capital. Le prospectus d’émission de titres de créance complexe proposé a été visé par la SFSA (Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority). Cependant, l’AMF considère que ce produit est trop complexe pour être commercialisé auprès des investisseurs non professionnels et n’a pas examiné les documents commerciaux.

Bitcoin’s strength beneath the surface

Evolutions du marché

5 big signals from Consensus 2025 every investor should know

21Shares sees Bitcoin hit $138.5K by year-end

Coinbase just launched a new internet standard for payments, and it could increase demand for Ethereum

On-chain Insights