Off the Block podcast: Trading Bitcoin around the Chinese New Year
Bitcoin is no longer traded as a niche asset. Today, it behaves like a macro instrument, shaped by liquidity, FX dynamics, central bank policy, and geopolitical risk.
In the latest episode of Off the Block, we’re joined by Konstantina Tyrali and Krisan Haria from our Investment Management team to unpack an exciting seasonal trading strategy: the Chinese New Year, and why 2026 may be an opportune time for it.
Rather than treating Chinese New Year as folklore, the conversation dives into the structural forces that historically drove Bitcoin outperformance around the holiday: liquidity injections from the People’s Bank of China, cash distribution via hongbao (monetary gifts in red envelopes), mass migration during Chunyun, and the resulting FX distortions. But as last year showed, even well-documented setups can fail if macro regimes shift.
In this episode, we explore why the trade struggled last year, how USD/CNY dynamics can become a dominant signal for Bitcoin, and why narrowing trading windows means execution now matters more than conviction. We also zoom out to examine deeper structural shifts: from China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and growing gold reserves to the rise of the e-CNY and what it means for future capital flows.
This is a conversation about adapting frameworks, not repeating them and why Bitcoin trading in 2026 increasingly resembles an opportunity with asymmetric payoff.
Key questions discussed in this episode:
- Why did the Chinese New Year trade work historically, and what actually drove returns?
- What changed last year, and why did FX overwhelm seasonality?
- Can Bitcoin still outperform around holiday liquidity events in 2026?
- How do yuan dynamics influence Bitcoin price action today?
- What would invalidate this framework entirely?
- Is this the last time the Chinese New Year trade works “cleanly”?
🎧 Listen to the full episode of Off the Block
Tune in as host Maximiliaan Michielsen breaks down how trading frameworks are evolving, and why relying on outdated models may be a big risk traders face today, in the wake of a changing regime.
Want more conversations with the thinkers shaping digital asset markets? Subscribe to Off the Block, where we break down the forces moving crypto — one block at a time.
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